Alright, back in action after a bout of viral gastroenteritis for the holidays - thought that flu shot would leave me in the clear but my best friend's snot nosed kids put an end to that cheery notion. If you haven't contracted this bug - actually a cocktail of viruses - you're in for a period of total exhaustion, followed by one or more of the following: vomiting, bad case of the trots, severe chills, loss of sense of taste, weakness. I had to cope with the last three, the snot nosed kids puked and then went on their merry way. Yes, copiously washed my hands when visiting, too. Lot of good that does!
Had some time to fiddle with my spreadsheet, and here's where new oil seems to be coming from:
Ah, Iraq, cornucopia of cornucopias. They chime in with 2050 kb/d out of 2120 kb/d total - sic. You got that right, so much for a gusher of anything tangible. As for the remaining, I added Algar myself - my first and probably last round of editing Wikis. It's 10 kb/d so technically under the radar of the Wiki in the first place, which is supposed to be ≥ 20 kb/d. But it doesn't look like there are too many cooks in that kitchen anymore - emailed Sam Foucher about this blog, will see if he chimes in.
Taking Rumalia out of the picture brings 2010 down to 3100 kb/d - which is below my putative decline rate of 3755 kb/d for that year, which can't be that far from those calculated by real researchers, no? This gives a deficit of 655 kb/d for last year - a factor in the inexorable price rise? Of course OPEC have at least ca. 1.4 mb/d of spare cap somewhere or another. This would just eat into that to an extent - but we heard no news of OPEC turning on taps, rather them saying that they're satisfied with whatever the price band was at the moment.
Now, Rumalia has made no such collosal gain, in case you haven't heard. In fact, investigating a bit closer, that subject deserves a post of its own.