Monday, December 27, 2010

Decline Rates

TOD:
The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates
Analysis of Decline Rates
Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts (Nov '07)
Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? (Nov '07)

These last two weren't tagged with 'decline rate' for some reason. The 2008 WEO is available as a free download now. The TOD analysis puzzled over various discrepancies in its content; the text implicitly says that the decline rate (DR) is 6.7% for post-peak fields worldwide; but the graphs they present seem to show a much gentler rate, which they extrapolated as 4.35%, the exact same number CERA arrived at.

Now, the IEA also state that the "natural" DR of 9%, i.e., the decline sans any human intervention, will increase to "over 10%" in 2030. The normal DR will proceed accordingly, of course. A 1% gain per year in a 4.35% DR for 2009 (probably not the correct starting point but) will yield yearly losses as follows:

Date Decline/ Decline
      Rate    (kb/d)
    (1%/yr)  
2009  0.0435  -3718
2010  0.0439  -3755
2011  0.0444  -3793
2012  0.0448  -3831
2013  0.0453  -3869
2014  0.0457  -3908
2015  0.0462  -3947
2016  0.0466  -3986
2017  0.0471  -4026
2018  0.0476  -4066
2019  0.0481  -4107
2020  0.0485  -4148
2021  0.0490  -4190
2022  0.0495  -4231
2023  0.0500  -4274
2024  0.0505  -4316
2025  0.0510  -4360
2026  0.0515  -4403
2027  0.0520  -4447
2028  0.0526  -4492
2029  0.0531  -4537
2030  0.0536  -4582


These declines are measured against a constant 85471 kb/d, which was the AL for 2008 or something...close enough for government work, as my father (RIP) would say. "Bumpy plateau" as someone else once put it.

When matched up against the Wiki pages tallied up previously, we get the following:

Date/Decline/Wiki   Diff  
     (kb/d)/Tallies  
            Dec'10
2009  -3718  5007  1289
2010  -3755  4950  1194.83
2011  -3793  6428  2635.28
2012  -3831  2425  -1405.65
2013  -3869  2495  -1373.95
2014  -3908  2220  -1687.64
2015  -3947  2530  -1416.72
2016  -3986  1385  -2601.19

This suggests no need to trot out OPEC spare capacity, indeed makes you wonder if the '05-'07 plateau was just the industry hiccuping. But many of those projects in the Wiki are NGLs; I'll weed those out later and see what the diff is.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Wiki Oil Megaprojects - overall tallies

I created a spreadsheet for the Wiki pages a year ago, and updated it from time to time. I think the last time was in late summer - have to start annotating these things! Anyway here are the differences between then and now:

Year/  Wiki Dec 2010/  Wiki Earlier/  Diff


2003  3172    
2004  2747    
2005  3776    
2006  3845    
2007  2950    
2008  4443    
2009  4742  4345  -397
2010  3240  3660  420
2011  3114  3735  621
2012  2275  3259  984
2013  2400  2545  145
2014  2050  1820  -230
2015  2530  1255  -1275
2016  1385  1095  -290
2017  462  162  -300
2018  130  180  50
2019    50  
2020      


I'm still getting the hang of things like formatting here so bear with me in re: appearance.

Projects have been shuffled around a bit - 2009 saw its fair share of delays and cancellations. What with there being spare capacity around this isn't such an issue, and tallying up what's coming online 2009-2019, for the current batch we have a total of 22328 kb/d, vs. 22106 kb/d for earlier this year, a difference of 222 kb/d.

Oddly enough when I tallied up the individual projects earlier this year the figures differed greatly from what was given on the front page:

Year/ Values from Tallying/ Values from Wiki Front Page/ Diff

2009 4742 4345 397
2010 3230 3660 -430
2011 3114 3735 -621
2012 2275 3259 -984
2013 2400 2545 -145
2014 2350 1820 530
2015 2830 1255 1575
2016 1085 1095 -10
2017 162 162 0
2018 130 180 -50
2019 0 50 -50
2020 200  200

Forget if I asked Sam Foucher or Tony Erikson what that was all about. From Oct 2009: The Oil Drum: Europe | Insights Regarding Future World Oil Production Based on ASPO Denver Presentations summarizes a few outlooks on future supply/demand; Tony's World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009 is based on the Wiki data. I don't seem to have popped the question there; nothing in an email. Nothing in the TOD archives about 'megaproject tallies.' Hmm. Grist for the mill, I guess. I did have to archive all old email in June '09, though...

UPDATE: I've tallied up the latest batch of numbers, here is what I get:


Year/Wiki Dec 2010/Wiki Earlier/Diff/Dec 2010 Tallys/Diff
2003 3172    
2004 2747    
2005 3776    
2006 3845    
2007 2950    
2008 4443 4403 -40  
2009 4742 4345 -397 5007 265
2010 3240 3660 420 4950 1710
2011 3114 3735 621 6428 3314
2012 2275 3259 984 2425 150
2013 2400 2545 145 2495 95
2014 2050 1820 -230 2220 170
2015 2530 1255 -1275 2530 0
2016 1385 1095 -290 1385 0
2017 462 162 -300 462 0
2018 130 180 50 130 0
2019  50  0 0
2020    200 200

Perl script was only ran 11 months ago. These Perls must be really overpaid, or take 11 month vacations? ;)

Get a load of these sums:

Wiki Dec 2010/Wiki Earlier/Diff/Dec 2010 Tallys/Diff
22920 22498 -522 28824 5904

That last number is the difference in totals between what I sum up now and when I last updated the page, i.e., 28824 - 22920 or 5904 kb/d. That's a lot of oil! Of course it's all just drawing board/vaporware/theoretical at this stage.

Chris Skrebowski came up with much more robust numbers for the Peak Oil Group and their Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) study:

Date  Wiki Tallies ITPOES   Diff
                Dec 2010
2009  5007  6200  1193
2010  4950  5700  750
2011  6428  3200  -3228
2012  2425  3400  975
2013  2495  4400  1905
2014  2220  4200  1980
2015  2530  2400  -130

Monday, December 20, 2010

Oil Megaprojects

Wiki page: Oil Megaprojects. From this I've derived an OpenOffice spreadsheet, an earlier version is hosted here at Deposit Files: Megaprojects spreadsheet. Warning: contents are a bit of a mess, good luck sorting things out.

I much prefer working with spreadsheets to mucking around with the Wiki interface; perhaps I'll investigate ways to streamline that for myself, but another approach would be to host the spreadsheet at Google Docs and have my own updates publicly available to see; others could upload their own work, charts would be readily accessible for generation, etc. Or someone else could port my work to these other locales.

This post will serve as a repository for links to megaprojects related work. I'll update things from time to time.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Klahowya

"Hello" in the old Chinook Jargon. I figure as a lifelong Oregon resident that would be apropos, also an improvement on the usual ways to kick off blogs.

My purpose here will be to gather together data on the world's energy sources, mostly hydrocarbons, and also on how our demand for same is changing. When I first took an active interest in this, around 6 years ago, it all seemed very much as little more than clouds on the horizon, at worst - prices had risen, contrary to assurances from various agencies, but nothing suggested this would lead to the 2008 spike in the price of oil and subsequent economic contraction, with attendant collapse in demand for oil. We now observe the fallout from these events, with the price of oil steadily climbing back up; officially the recession which began in late 2007 ended some time ago, and demand continues to slowly rebound in the developed world; but unemployment is still high, and one wonders if any economic rebound will be substantial, or something more along the lines of Japan's 'Lost Decade.' How that will play out I leave up to others; my focus will be on whether the world has peaked in oil production, or is close to doing so, and whether we can move away from our dependence on same, as happened to some degree in the 1980s and 90s, contrary to many assured forecasts at the time.