Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Wiki Oil Megaprojects - overall tallies

I created a spreadsheet for the Wiki pages a year ago, and updated it from time to time. I think the last time was in late summer - have to start annotating these things! Anyway here are the differences between then and now:

Year/  Wiki Dec 2010/  Wiki Earlier/  Diff


2003  3172    
2004  2747    
2005  3776    
2006  3845    
2007  2950    
2008  4443    
2009  4742  4345  -397
2010  3240  3660  420
2011  3114  3735  621
2012  2275  3259  984
2013  2400  2545  145
2014  2050  1820  -230
2015  2530  1255  -1275
2016  1385  1095  -290
2017  462  162  -300
2018  130  180  50
2019    50  
2020      


I'm still getting the hang of things like formatting here so bear with me in re: appearance.

Projects have been shuffled around a bit - 2009 saw its fair share of delays and cancellations. What with there being spare capacity around this isn't such an issue, and tallying up what's coming online 2009-2019, for the current batch we have a total of 22328 kb/d, vs. 22106 kb/d for earlier this year, a difference of 222 kb/d.

Oddly enough when I tallied up the individual projects earlier this year the figures differed greatly from what was given on the front page:

Year/ Values from Tallying/ Values from Wiki Front Page/ Diff

2009 4742 4345 397
2010 3230 3660 -430
2011 3114 3735 -621
2012 2275 3259 -984
2013 2400 2545 -145
2014 2350 1820 530
2015 2830 1255 1575
2016 1085 1095 -10
2017 162 162 0
2018 130 180 -50
2019 0 50 -50
2020 200  200

Forget if I asked Sam Foucher or Tony Erikson what that was all about. From Oct 2009: The Oil Drum: Europe | Insights Regarding Future World Oil Production Based on ASPO Denver Presentations summarizes a few outlooks on future supply/demand; Tony's World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009 is based on the Wiki data. I don't seem to have popped the question there; nothing in an email. Nothing in the TOD archives about 'megaproject tallies.' Hmm. Grist for the mill, I guess. I did have to archive all old email in June '09, though...

UPDATE: I've tallied up the latest batch of numbers, here is what I get:


Year/Wiki Dec 2010/Wiki Earlier/Diff/Dec 2010 Tallys/Diff
2003 3172    
2004 2747    
2005 3776    
2006 3845    
2007 2950    
2008 4443 4403 -40  
2009 4742 4345 -397 5007 265
2010 3240 3660 420 4950 1710
2011 3114 3735 621 6428 3314
2012 2275 3259 984 2425 150
2013 2400 2545 145 2495 95
2014 2050 1820 -230 2220 170
2015 2530 1255 -1275 2530 0
2016 1385 1095 -290 1385 0
2017 462 162 -300 462 0
2018 130 180 50 130 0
2019  50  0 0
2020    200 200

Perl script was only ran 11 months ago. These Perls must be really overpaid, or take 11 month vacations? ;)

Get a load of these sums:

Wiki Dec 2010/Wiki Earlier/Diff/Dec 2010 Tallys/Diff
22920 22498 -522 28824 5904

That last number is the difference in totals between what I sum up now and when I last updated the page, i.e., 28824 - 22920 or 5904 kb/d. That's a lot of oil! Of course it's all just drawing board/vaporware/theoretical at this stage.

Chris Skrebowski came up with much more robust numbers for the Peak Oil Group and their Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) study:

Date  Wiki Tallies ITPOES   Diff
                Dec 2010
2009  5007  6200  1193
2010  4950  5700  750
2011  6428  3200  -3228
2012  2425  3400  975
2013  2495  4400  1905
2014  2220  4200  1980
2015  2530  2400  -130

No comments:

Post a Comment