Saturday, December 18, 2010

Klahowya

"Hello" in the old Chinook Jargon. I figure as a lifelong Oregon resident that would be apropos, also an improvement on the usual ways to kick off blogs.

My purpose here will be to gather together data on the world's energy sources, mostly hydrocarbons, and also on how our demand for same is changing. When I first took an active interest in this, around 6 years ago, it all seemed very much as little more than clouds on the horizon, at worst - prices had risen, contrary to assurances from various agencies, but nothing suggested this would lead to the 2008 spike in the price of oil and subsequent economic contraction, with attendant collapse in demand for oil. We now observe the fallout from these events, with the price of oil steadily climbing back up; officially the recession which began in late 2007 ended some time ago, and demand continues to slowly rebound in the developed world; but unemployment is still high, and one wonders if any economic rebound will be substantial, or something more along the lines of Japan's 'Lost Decade.' How that will play out I leave up to others; my focus will be on whether the world has peaked in oil production, or is close to doing so, and whether we can move away from our dependence on same, as happened to some degree in the 1980s and 90s, contrary to many assured forecasts at the time.

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