Monday, December 27, 2010

Decline Rates

TOD:
The 2008 IEA WEO - Production Decline Rates
Analysis of Decline Rates
Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts (Nov '07)
Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating? (Nov '07)

These last two weren't tagged with 'decline rate' for some reason. The 2008 WEO is available as a free download now. The TOD analysis puzzled over various discrepancies in its content; the text implicitly says that the decline rate (DR) is 6.7% for post-peak fields worldwide; but the graphs they present seem to show a much gentler rate, which they extrapolated as 4.35%, the exact same number CERA arrived at.

Now, the IEA also state that the "natural" DR of 9%, i.e., the decline sans any human intervention, will increase to "over 10%" in 2030. The normal DR will proceed accordingly, of course. A 1% gain per year in a 4.35% DR for 2009 (probably not the correct starting point but) will yield yearly losses as follows:

Date Decline/ Decline
      Rate    (kb/d)
    (1%/yr)  
2009  0.0435  -3718
2010  0.0439  -3755
2011  0.0444  -3793
2012  0.0448  -3831
2013  0.0453  -3869
2014  0.0457  -3908
2015  0.0462  -3947
2016  0.0466  -3986
2017  0.0471  -4026
2018  0.0476  -4066
2019  0.0481  -4107
2020  0.0485  -4148
2021  0.0490  -4190
2022  0.0495  -4231
2023  0.0500  -4274
2024  0.0505  -4316
2025  0.0510  -4360
2026  0.0515  -4403
2027  0.0520  -4447
2028  0.0526  -4492
2029  0.0531  -4537
2030  0.0536  -4582


These declines are measured against a constant 85471 kb/d, which was the AL for 2008 or something...close enough for government work, as my father (RIP) would say. "Bumpy plateau" as someone else once put it.

When matched up against the Wiki pages tallied up previously, we get the following:

Date/Decline/Wiki   Diff  
     (kb/d)/Tallies  
            Dec'10
2009  -3718  5007  1289
2010  -3755  4950  1194.83
2011  -3793  6428  2635.28
2012  -3831  2425  -1405.65
2013  -3869  2495  -1373.95
2014  -3908  2220  -1687.64
2015  -3947  2530  -1416.72
2016  -3986  1385  -2601.19

This suggests no need to trot out OPEC spare capacity, indeed makes you wonder if the '05-'07 plateau was just the industry hiccuping. But many of those projects in the Wiki are NGLs; I'll weed those out later and see what the diff is.

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